UFC 60 is the Beginning

It is common knowledge that Dana White got his start as a boxing promoter. So it comes as no surprise that UFC 60 has the feel of a boxing event as opposed to what we have become used to with past shows. Typically, there are two or three fights on any UFC card that draw attention to the event. This particular show however, is relying specifically on one fight with what seems to be some filler in the undercard. Fortunately, for the established fan the undercard has some interesting matchups that will likely prove to be a lot less predictable than the main event.

Ever since the main event of Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie was announced it has been blatantly obvious that Dana White is trying to establish the "new" UFC as a much different product than the one promoted by SEG back in the '90s. The success of the Ultimate Fighter reality show has brought fans new and old to the UFC at a blistering rate. Those who left the sport during the dark years and never returned will certainly recognize the name Royce Gracie as the seemingly unstoppable champion of three of the first four UFC events. As the theory undoubtably goes, if Hughes defeats Royce as easily as Dana hopes it will establish the new breed of fighter as true sportsman as opposed to one dimensional marial artists. The problem here is that what could result is a boring main event that leaves fans dissatisfied with the value of their ticket or PPV purchase (both of which are the highest ever for a UFC event).

Perhaps the UFC would have been better served by booking a solid co-main event on the card to draw attention to the quality of fights today in the UFC. Something with the caliber of a Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonner rematch or a Paul Buentello vs. Frank Mir bout. While there are extenuating circumstances that wouldn't have allowed either of these fights to take place on this card, the point remains: The UFC has placed all its eggs in the preverbial basket by relying on one fight to carry the card. Don't misunderstand, the undercard of this event has some great matchups but it is riddled with unknowns to the casual fan.

And what happens if Royce beats Matt? Since this is a non-title fight there would be obvious implecations in the 170lb. division where Georges St. Pierre has been promised the next crack at the belt. Beyond that, would there be some image issues the UFC would have to deal with? From a strictly notalgic point of view, it would be great to see Royce submit Matt but, would Dana want to pay Royce another huge paycheck to get back in the Octagon for a rematch? All of these questions give the event the feel of a comeback fight in boxing similar to when George Foreman fought Michael Moorer for the heavy weight title at 45 years old. We all saw what happened then.

Here are my much maligned predictions for UFC 60:

Jeremy Horn vs. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen is coming off a decision victory over Trevor Prangley at Ultimate Fight Night in April and is now comitted to fighting at 185lbs. Horn is coming off a decision victory over Trevor Prangley at UFC 56 last November and is now comitted to fighting at 185lbs. Horn has beaten Sonnen twice already, once each by submission and cut. Why is this fight happening again? Horn is still too much for Sonnen on the ground. Horn by submission in the first round.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabiano Scherner

Gonzaga had a lack luster performance in his UFC debut against Kevin Jordan at UFC 56. He was able to get the victory very late in the 3rd round with a great punch but he was exhausted at the time. Scherner is returning to the octagon after a brutal knockout loss at the hands of Brandon Vera. Neither have very impressive wins under their belt but they're heavyweights and the UFC needs heavyweights. These two are talented ground fighters with solid BJJ pedigrees. I'm not expecting much from this one, but I'll give the edge to Gonzaga as he has shown that he can stay in the fight to the end. Gonzaga by unanimous decision.

Allessio Sakara vs. Dean Lister

Everyone should climb aboard the Allesion Sakara bandwagon now and hold on tight. Allesio has the best technical striking ability of any one at light heavyweight in the UFC. Yes, that includes Chuck Liddel. His last appearance in the UFC was a bloody dismantling of Elvis Sinosec. He knows how to defend submissions and can control his opponent on the ground. Lister is a grappling sorcerer and can submit anyone in the world but he hasn't fought MMA in over a year and hasn't fought in a cage in 3 1/2 years. Sakara will be well prepared to defend the takedown and will work like mad to keep this one standing. Sakara by TKO in round 2.

Spencer Fisher vs. Matt Wiman

Spencer was widely regarded as the next big thing at 155lbs before he lost a close decision to Sam Stout at UFC 58. Wiman meanwhile, is making his UFC debut. Fisher is a proven finisher having won a decision in only 1 of his 17 victories. I see no reason for anything to change here. Wiman is severely deficient in experience to handle Fisher's well rounded skills and fast hands. Fisher by KO in round 1.

Melvin Guillard vs. Rick Davis

I have been fortunate enough to witness Melvin's training for this fight and he has never looked sharper. He's been aggressively working his stand up and looks to be ready to get back on the winning track after dropping his last fight to Josh Neer. Davis is making his UFC debut and is a late bloomer in the MMA game. Nothing in Rick's 3-0-1 record stands out as impressive and he hasn't had a fight in nearly 2 years. Melvin will likely look to damage Rick early with kicks and work his GNP. Rick has never been stopped and has a reputation as a guy who can take some punishment. Guillard by decision.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Allesio

The obvious question here has to do with the recovery of Diego after a debiliating illness that has kept him sidelined for the last 6+ months. Sanchez looks to stay undefeated while Allesio makes his return to the UFC after a 6 year absence following a loss against (belive it or not) Pat Miletich for the lightweight title. Allesio gets the edge in experience but not by much. If Diego is 85% healthy it will be enough to get the win. John will be the toughest opponent Diego has faced in his career. I think he pulls through but barely. Sanchez wins by decision.

Brandon Vera vs. Assuerio Silva

Silva is coming off a tough loss to Tim Sylvia in what was a bad match-up for both fighters. Brandon Vera is proving to be a highly marketable fighter with the skills to back it up. This is a very tough matchup for Vera and we will get to see is ground game tested for the first time. Brandon has had a lot of success in BJJ matches in his career so he should be fine. I see this fight going back and forth for a while before Vera's slightly superior kicking ability takes over. Brandon by TKO in the 2nd round.

Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie

Just about everything that could be said about this fight has been. Hughes has a reputation for being submittable. He has 4 losses of which 3 were the result of a submission. He also nearly lost a fight to Carlos Newton by triangle choke until he was fortunate enough to slam Newton's head into the canvas on the way down after going to sleep. Royce has a big problem on his hands if Matt decides to keep this fight on his feet. I suspect Gracie will try anything to pull guard but the odds are definitely with Hughes' ability to control the pace and style of the fight. Royce is experienced and tough enought to take Hughes the distance but it won't be pretty. Hughes wins by decision.

I'm looking forward to this fight being over with so the UFC can get back to the usual business of promoting MMA. With the exception of middleweight, there are emerging story lines in every division. UFC 60 is the beginning of the new era of one fight shows with "oh, by the way" undercards but at least the next few main events will have something at stake.

Will