Friday, December 15, 2006

Double Post: Zuffa Buys Out, Showtime Sells Out

The recent purchases by Zuffa along with the information that just came out of the new Showtime MMA promotion has been so significant it waranted an extensive double post.

One of the biggest issues the hardcore MMA community has with the sport is the issues that have surfaced resulting from the two biggest organizations, Pride and UFC, not coming to an agreement that would enable the best fighters in the world to face each other. Depending on what camp your in the fault lies with either Zuffa or DSE when in reality fault has to be placed with both.

However, recent actions by Dana White indicate that perhaps UFC is more interested in providing the best possible fights for the fans than people initially thought. Recently, Zuffa purchased the flailing WFA promotion as well as the more successful WEC promotion. The WFA purchase looks to have essentially amounted to the acquisition of fighter contracts. Most notably, UFC now has Quinton Jackson on their roster. What's interesting about this is that UFC was heavily critisized for not signing Jackson immediately after his Pride contract ended. As it turns out their may have been some interference by Quinton's management that prevented UFC offers from getting through to the light heavyweight standout. Regardless, Dana White finally gets the opportunity to put together the Jackson vs. Liddell rematch that will promise to be another huge money maker for the company.

The purchase of the WEC brings different prospects to Zuffa. This will likely prove to be what amounts to a farm system for UFC. Look to see young fighters getting developed at WEC shows and veteran fighters sent down to help bounce back from injuries and losing streaks. A fighter like Mikey Burnett will be the perfect candidate for WEC events. He'll soon be coming of major neck surgery and should work his way back into the game slowly. Meanwhile, the prospect of seeing him fight on television is interesting to fans. This expanded content is going to further bolster the sport into the mainstream. In addition, with other organizations trying to get their start in the U.S., Dana White just captured some of the best young, developing talent in the sport. Anyone else ready to see Uriah Faber in the UFC?

This esentially leaves the IFL as the biggest competitor to UFC dominence in North America. Then again, the IFL concept essentially offsets the competition between the two organizations. The IFL has decided to localize its fanbase. UFC has promised to respond by booking shows in several new cities in 2007. Both organizations are also planning to go international next year as well which may make this race more interesting than initially thought.

While Zuffa has certainly proven to be an organization savvy in business and marketing, the powers involved in the new Showtime promotion are setting themselves up for disaster. The newly named Elite Xtreme Combat announced their first event and revealed more about what to expect from the organization. While the main event of their February 10th debut show; Frank Shamrock vs. Renzo Gracie looks promising, the way the sport will be presented to the fans is nightmarish at best.

Elite XC is run by Gary Shaw. Shaw is a boxing promoter who many thought would bring further legitimacy MMA. What is starting to become apparant however, is that Shaw wants to change the sport to more closely resemble what he knows. As reported at Sherdog.com it was announced in a press conference that Elite XC rules will limit time on the ground to 15 seconds. Whether or not this means that the fight will be brought to the feet automatically after 15 seconds of ground time, or 15 seconds of "inactivity" on the ground is unclear. Either way, this is a tragically poor desicion. MMA without a ground game is not MMA. These rules liken Elite XC more toward San-Shou than MMA. What's odd is that both Renzo Gracie and Frank Shamrock must have been aware of these rules when they signed to fight for the organization. How can a Gracie consider fighting with these types of limitations? And, assuming that 15 second limit applies only to inactivitiy on the ground, this will still result in crippling the ground game. Inactivity is a purely subjective observation. Every MMA fan has seen a fight wherein a stalemate on the ground should be reset. Likewise there are many situations where a fight is brought to the feet prematurely. Further, why would a fighter that has a strong ground game consider fighting for an organization that, by rule, will limit the effectiveness of their game? Will fighters like Matt Lindland or Tito Ortiz be remotely interested in this? Lastly, there is an inherent saftey issue to be considered. One reason MMA has proven to be safer than boxing is the options a fighter has to get out of trouble when dealing with a superior striker. By forcing the fighters to stand, Elite XC is putting fighters at risk of serious injury.

Executives at Showtime should take notice of what Elite XC is doing and take steps to ensure that unified rules are followed at these events. The first Elite XC event is in Mississippi. I'd be curious to see what other rules the group will employ that differ from NSAC rules. Overall this setup is going to prove disappointing.

Friday, December 01, 2006

Does He Mean it This Time?

SpikeTV has added yet another show to it's considerable lineup of UFC content. The new show, hosted by Joe Rogan, is called Inside the UFC. In the premier episode, Joe sat down with UFC president Dana White to discuss the past, present and future of the UFC. One topic they touched on is how to ensure UFC champions are fighting the best fighters in the world. Basically, Joe and Dana were dancing around the Liddell vs. Silva debacle that left Dana White watching Pride run a show in Las Vegas while he sat with a very large dose of egg on his face. It's obvious that Dana has learned his lesson about announcing unsigned fights for good this time as no names were mentioned during the show's discussion. Dana did however, make a promise to provide fans with fights that included the best possible combatants regardless of organizational affiliation. He even eluded to a plan that will be put in place to make these types of fights happen in 2007.

My first thought was to say "Yeah, yeah. We've heard that before". Then I started thinking about how Dana approached the subject and something was different. I realized that there was caution in his statement this time as opposed to bravado. I believe Dana truly wants to see Chuck fight Wanderlei, Dan fight Anderson and Tim fight Fedor. I think he has to recognize that he's out of blockbuster matchups following the December 30th rematch between Chuck and Tito as stated previously.

One of the big factors that may help him sign these fights is something that didn't happen this year. Pride FC was unable to secure an agreement for a Japanese TV network to carry their New Years Eve show. For those who don't know, New Years Eve programming in Japan has become a very competitive event for the networks' ratings. Typically, K-1 and Pride would be going head-to-head trying to win the ratings battle but this year K-1 finds themselves the only horse in the race. Pride will have to rely solely on gate and PPV revenues to pay expenses and try to stay profitable. Based on who they list as competitors for the event, payroll should be very high. This could cause huge financial difficulty for Pride moving forward which could open the door for UFC to start bringing in some of the fighters that are bound to leave as opportunities diminish.

Another key element to this issue has got to be general motivation. Dana White got beat to the punch by J.D. Penn when it comes to securing a deal with a premium cable network. Penn was able to secure a legitimate deal with Showtime to promote MMA fights in 2007, something Dana claimed was to happen between the UFC and HBO months ago. The best way for White to best the Showtime-Penn deal is to promote better fights on a competing network. (Incidentally, the fact the Showtime took the MMA leap first is going to force HBO's hand in '07. As it is, they will simply look like copycats when they do sign a deal so it will be criticall that any deal they do sign be a blockbuster type arrangement. Only UFC can provide that.) In addition, the way Pride used Dana and his audience to promote themselves prior to the Pride U.S. debut has to be a huge thorn in Dana's side. It's hard to believe that he's not looking at that and trying to restore some face for himself and his organization.

The biggest reason to believe White is going to make these huge fights happen this year is money. It's now official: UFC has more money to spend on fighter salaries than Pride. Just about everyone was surprised to see what Pride fighters actually make when the Nevada State Athletic Commssion rules dictated that DSE reveal fighter purses following the Pride 32: The Real Deal show took place in Las Vegas. The prior prevailing opinion was that UFC salaries paled in comparison to Pride payouts. This turned out to not be the case. It turns out the two are just about even keel. However, the UFC continues to increase revenues while Pride is looking for revenue sources just to stay afloat. There has been a huge shift in spending power in favor of UFC. This is likely going to result in some major Pride talent jumping ship to UFC.

If ever there was an opportunity in time for mixed martial arts fans to see the best fight each other, 2007 may be it. It likely won't be until later in the year but it has to happen. Dana needs these fights to take his organization to the next level. Further, he's taking a more cautious approach to securing these matchups. So when White promises to provide fans with the fights they want to see in 2007, does he mean it this time? The answer looks to be a cautious Yes.

Will

Friday, September 29, 2006

UFC is Rising to Fall

Now that all the heat that UFC 63 generated is starting to die down, it's time to look toward the future of UFC events. Not just in the next few months, but over the course of 2007. There's good news and bad news. The good news is that the rest of 2006 looks to be a continuation of an incredible year for Zuffa. The bad news is that, unless something changes quickly, 2007 won't come close to living up to the hype Dana White has created this year. The reason for this is the lack of interest generating matchups available to UFC. Especially since 6 out of the last 8 UFC PPV events have featured a rematch as the headlining fight. Here is a break down of each weight class and why all, except one, are in deep trouble of causing a huge decrease in UFC momentum over the next 12-15 months.

155 lb. Lightweight Division:

This is the "except one" mentioned above. This division is so stacked that determing who the true dominant fighters will be is still a year away. Just the UFC 63 results alone shook up the division and raised a ton of questions about who the #1 contender will be following the Florian vs. Sherk fight in October. Joe Lauzon, Tyson Griffin, Melvin Guillard, Roger Huerta, and Jorge Gurgel all made a case for themself. Further, there are guys like Hermes Franca, Josh Thompson, Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout that will have a say in what happens in the title story. By the way, we still haven't heard the last from Jens Pulver.

170 lb. Welterweight Division:

Matt Hughes' decisive victory over B.J. Penn established that the welterwight division in UFC is really about three fighters. Hughes will battle Georges St. Pierre in November in a much anticipated rematch. The winner will have to defend against Diego Sanchez soon thereafter. After that there is little to look forward to in the division. The TUF 4 winner will get a title shot but none of the fighters on the show can compete with Matt, GSP or Diego. UFC is going to have to set up yet another rematch in 2007. This is often called one of the deepest divisions in MMA yet there are few if any fighters that can be looked to as legitimate challengers for the belt. There are still intriguing fights in the division but none of them would be for the title.

185 lb. Middleweight Division:

If Rich Franklin defeats Anderson Silva at UFC 64 there will be little argument that he is the top 185 lb. fighter on the planet. He will likely next face a challenge from Mike Swick. This fight will generate some interest. Swick has shown significant ability but nothing that would indicate he could defeat Franklin. Swick's last fight against Loiseau was impressive but his grip on the fight was slipping in the latter minutes. In a 5 round fight against a master strategist like Rich Franklin, Swick doesn't stand much of a chance. Like Hughes or GSP, Franklin will have to defend against the other winner of TUF 4 and, like Hughes or GSP, none of the show's competitors look to present a significant threat to take the title. Dana White needs to go outside and bring people in the challenge Franklin. Specifically, he needs to bury the hatchett with Matt Lindland and set up a title shot for him. Lindland has been on a tear lately and would push Franklin harder than anyone ever has.

205 lb. Light-Heavyweight Division:

No division is in more trouble of becoming irrelevant than this. In December, Chuck Liddell will fight Tito Ortiz in what will be his fourth rematch out of his last five fights. Worse, Tito is the last interesting fight in the entire division for Chuck. As it stands now, there are no UFC fighters at 205 lbs. that could create an interesting title match. There are very few non title matches in the division that will spark fan interest as well. If UFC doesn't aggressively pursue 205 lb. fighters from Pride (and sign Quinton Jackson), their marquee fighter will quickly become old hat. In addition, the window to see Chuck fight at his current level is shrinking. He's knees and feet are starting to fail him and he's 37. If UFC can't go out and sign legitimate challengers to Liddell it would not be surprising to see him leave the UFC in favor of greater challenges.

265 lb. Heavyweight Division:

It's no secret that the UFC heavyweight division has been struggling for a couple of years to create excitement. UFC has succeeded in taking the division from the least competative to the second-least competative division after the 205 lb. division. In the short-term, there is no one to fight title holder Tim Sylvia. Looking 6-12 months down the road a different story starts to materialize. Brandon Vera continues to improve and is creating a huge buzz around himself, Cheik Kongo is starting to make a name for himself, Gabriel Gonzaga has racked up a few wins, Eddie Sanchez looked a somewhat impressive in his UFC debut at 63 and Frank Mir could still get it back together enought to make a run. Since the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix ended, there are some fighters that the UFC could look to to help bring a little more legitimacy to the division. Specifically, Antonio Nogueira and Josh Barnett are prime candidates to move into the division and instantly generate great matchups with the other hopefuls. UFC is on the right track with this division but there is still a lot to be done.

With no predestined marquee matchups to look forward to in 2007 there could be a significant slow down in the momentum Dana has generated over the last 18 months. The more educated fans become, the more they will demand fight cards with a headline match that means something. This issue is going to require that Dana White be more aggressive in his pursuit of the sport's top talent. Profits have never been higher for Zuffa and in order to continue generating more, they will have to part with some.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

An Open Letter to Jim Lampley

Dear Mr. Lampley,

Growing up, I always admired you as a broadcaster and commentator. Your insights into the world of boxing have always been, in my view, spot-on. No one calls a fight better than you. In addition, you have the ability to intelligently discuss events and news in other sports as well. You've done an excellent job when guest hosting the Jim Rome show where football, baseball and other sports require your attention. It is for these reasons that I am thoroughly disappointed by your close minded view on mixed martial arts.

It has always been my view that one of the attributes that separates the most intelligent people from the rest is the ability to say "I don't know enough about that to comment". You choose to do otherwise when it comes to discussing mixed martial arts and the UFC. I know this from transicripts of your appearance on the Jim Rome show and, most recently, an interview you did with respected MMA and boxing journalist Eddie Goldman.

There were a couple of issues that you raised as to whether mixed martial arts poses a threat to the health of boxing. I would like to address these individually with the hope of educating you on the subject. My intention is to help you to speak more intelligently on the subject the next time it comes up in an interview. Here are the points you raised in which you are mistaken and why:

1. While UFC PPV numbers have dramatically increased over the last couple of years, boxing PPV buys are up as well. While this is true, the percentage increase in PPV buys for MMA vs. Boxing over that last 2-3 years is not even close. In addition, the number of events that have attracted a large number of buys (say, over 250,000) has dropped. No one will argue that the biggest fights each year will still draw huge numbers. However, in 2006, UFC events have drawn nearly 2,000,000 ppv buys. This means the average buy rate for a UFC event is actually higher than the buy rate for boxing events, even when you consider the De La Hoya vs. Mayorga drew nearly 1,000,000 buys.

2. UFC is decades away, if ever, from having a fight with the economic impact of a De La Hoya vs. Mayweather bout. While it's true that the UFC fighters' compensation is far less than that of top level boxers, this is more a direct result of the sports' youth rather than its increase in popularity. It will take time to see boxing type of pay days for mixed martial artists but they will come sooner rather than later. In a sport that is less than 15 years out of inception fighters are already earning in excess of 1,000,000 per fight. Further, you sight the lack of competitors as a reason for the low pay scale. This is going to change. I firmly believe that the youth interested in combat sports are going to turn to MMA rather than boxing as time passes as indicated by the enormous increase in MMA schools in America.

3. Boxing has a 120 year history and a greater global impact where as UFC has only recently established a foothold in the U.S. Boxing does indeed have global popularity but MMA is equally or more popular than boxing in many areas of the world. Japan is a classic example of this. MMA events in Japan regualrly draw live gates in excess of 60,000. The growth of the sport in America is equalled in Britain and Eastern Europe. Ignoring the rapidity of the growth of the mixed martial arts globally and dismissing its impact on the combat sports shows ego-inspired ignorance.

4.MMA fighters do not have the sophistication in thier hands to hold up against real boxers. This is true only if the two are competing in a boxing match. This is a situation where your lack of knowledge of mixed martial arts technique is blatantly apparent. The fact is, striking in MMA is very different than in boxing. If an MMA fighter stands and delivers the same way as a boxer in an MMA match he will not be the least bit effective. No fan of MMA would begin to suggest that an MMA fighter would be able to defeat a boxer the quality of Mayweather or Barrera in a boxing match. At the same time, boxing people should realize that Mayweather's incredible skills are useless if he's on his back. The point is, while boxers have more sophisticated punching skills, MMA fighters have more sophisticated kicking and grappling skills which are proven to be more effective in a fight than boxing skills alone.

5.The real sophistication in combat sports is fighting with your hands. This way of thinking is totally wrong. Your time working Olympic broadcasts should have taught you differently. In its evoluton, MMA has come to include skills from boxing, judo, wrestling (freestyle and Greco-Roman), and tae kwon do (all of which are Olympic events) in addition to jiu jitsu and muay thai kickboxing. The level of sophistication required to combine all of these disciplines in training is far greater than that of pure boxing. I would encourage you to spend sometime learning the ground game aspect of MMA before making statements dismissing the amount of skill MMA athletes posess.

I would hope that you would put your preconceived notions aside and educate yourself on what is a marvelous sport with tremendous potential. Boxing will indeed be around for quite sometime. However, the sports problems (eg. who is the heavyweight champion these days?) are drawing the younger demographic away and towards something new and exciting. Consider making an effort to be more open minded about the sport or at least make an effort to be more educated about it rather than feebly attempt to dismiss its legitimacy. At the end of the day, as a sports broadcaster, you owe it to the profession.

Will

Monday, July 24, 2006

WFA Has a Long Way to Go

In the weeks leading up to Saturday's WFA show in Los Angeles it appeared as though there was actually going to be a game competitor to a UFC dominant MMA market. After the event was over however, it became obvious that Dana White and the Zuffa gang have little to worry about; at least in the short term.

This was a card that was tailor made for the hardcore MMA fan. With names like Rutten, Machida, Rampage, and Rodriguez long time fans were afforded the opportunity to see fighters previously only seen on YouTube or scratchy bootleg MMA videos. What actually took place was an event with obvious low level production values, a somewhat uneducated play-by-play commentator and a lack of organization. This was surprising considering the amount of marketing and promotion the event received, including a well produced preview show that aired on Showtime. It certainly didn't help to have one of the fighters in the main event fail a drug test a few days before the event leading to a drastically lopsided mismatch. Appreciated though, was Bas Rutten's reaction to Kimo's drug test. Rutten took Kimo to task, calling him a pussy for having to rely on drugs rather than hard work to get in shape for a fight.

The actual fights themselves were not the blockbusters they looked to be on paper. Certainly, WFA can't be held totally responsible for the performance of the fighters but at some point they are going to have to make an effort to encourage the well paid athletes to entertain. Here's a breakdown of the fights as they took place Saturday:

Rob McCullough vs. Harris Sarmiento
This is had to be a point of concern for the WFA executives. It was obvious that the plan was to start the televised card with these two with the thinking that there would be fireworks immediately from the bell. What happened instead was a conservative slow moving kickboxing match. McCullough pelted Sarmiento's legs with low kicks. Sarmiento made the occasional attempt to brawl but McCullough wanted none of it. Rob picked his shots for 15 minutes and earned an uninspired decision.

Ricco Rodriguez vs. Ron Waterman
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who would have thought that this fight would be more action packed then McCullough vs. Sarmiento but it was. Ricco still looked overweight but is obviously trimming up. He pressed the action, listened to his corner and fought a smart fight. Despite having Ron in considerable trouble a few times in the first round, Ricco was unable to finish. As it turned out, it didn't matter. Ricco did enough damage to Waterman to cause the doctors to call the fight in between the first and second round.

Ivan Salaverry vs. Art Santore
Ivan came out looking like a completely different fighter than the guy who circled for three rounds against Nathan Marquardt a year ago. This may have been his most impressive performance to date. His striking looked calculated and powerful and he came with a high level of aggressiveness. In the second round Ivan was able to hurt Santore and jumped at the chance to finish, landing in the mount and pounding Art to a referee stoppage.

Jason Miller vs. Lodune Sincaid
Miller declared himself a pro-wrestler in his prefight interview. While this is amusing to most hardcore MMA fans, the uninitiated might have taken him seriously. It's not clear how well the joke went over considering the broadcast team bought it as "a shoot". Lodune was completely outclassed in this fight. It seemed early on Sincaid decided to stay in the turtle position and dare Miller to submit him. Jason was happy to oblige with an easy rear naked choke victory in the first round.

Ryoto Machida vs. Vernon White
Towards the end of the first round of this fight MMA fans had to be screaming the question "Is this the guy that beat Rich Franklin and B.J. Penn?". Indeed, this is the guy. Machida unimpressively stood and kickboxed with White in what was another disappointment from this card. Ryoto was able to earn the decision but certainly made no fans in the U.S. with his performance.

Bas Rutten vs. Rueben Villareal
Rutten gets the nod for ring entrance of the night. He was able to ignite the crowd and it was clear he was a huge draw for the crowd. Villareal deserves a ton of credit for taking the fight on such short notice. Clearly Bas was ready to go. His punches looked well timed and sharp. It's a testament to Ruben's chin that Rutten had to resort to leg kicks to finish him in the first, but he was way overmatched to the surprise of no one.

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Lindland
This fight was the saving grace for WFA. Both fighters left everything in the ring in what turned into a fantastic ground war. Quentin's power was impressive was able to slam Matt almost at will. Matt on the other hand was able to show that he can compete with the strongest 205lb fighters in the world. The close split decision victory for Rampage may lead to a rematch.

If what is said about first impressions is true, then WFA has a lot of work to do to establish itself as a contender to UFC dominance in the U.S. Production values must improve for the scheduled October show. In addition, WFA should pay close attention to the style matchups that are arranges. The jury is still out on how much success WFA can have but after Saturday's event there's not much else to do but improve.

Friday, July 07, 2006

UFC 61: Bitter Rivals Preview

Although I'm looking forward to UFC 61 I have to wonder how long this pattern of rematches as main events can continue. Granted, the main event at UFC 60 wasn't a rematch, but prior to that we've had Arlovski vs. Sylvia 2 and Liddell vs. Couture 3. Looking forward, the next few events in the UFC PPV future are going to feature rematches for main events. Chuck Liddell will presumably return to the octagon in August to take on Ranato Sobral and in September Georges St. Pierre will get his much desired second crack at the UFC Welterweight Title against Matt Hughes. By the time these events are over, UFC fans will be looking for some new match-ups. Hopefully somewhere in there we'll get to see Rich Franklin defend his title against Anderson Silva. Here's my predictions for the July 8th card:

Hermes Franca vs. Joe Jordan

Hermes makes his long awaited return to the UFC along with the 155 pound division. While Joe Jordan is making his debut. Unfortunately for Joe, Hermes looks to be a better than ever and will put himself in the middle of the lightweight title mix. Jordan has experience against top competition but hasn't faired well. Look for Hermes to stop Joe early.
Franca by KO in Rd. 1

Gilbert Aldana vs. Cheick Kongo

Aldana is comming off of a brutal knockout loss to Paul Buentello back in February. Kongo makes his debut in the UFC but has one almost all of his fights by knockout. I was unimpressed with Aldana so I'm going with Kongo.
Kongo by KO in Rd. 2


Jeff Monson vs. Anthony Perosh
Monson is in the middle of a run that will likely land him a title shot against the winner of the Arlovski vs. Sylva fight. His grappling ability is world class but his stand up is a long way from being capable to capture the belt. Perosh is a BJJ blackbelt and has won almost all of his fights by submission. If Pe de Pano couldn't submit Monson, Perosh certainly won't.
Monson by decision

Drew Fickett vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Fickett was on a huge roll of beating guys named Josh before Josh Burkman choked him out at Ultimate Fight Night in January. Pellegrino's record looks good until you look closer. He's never faced anyone with the skills of Fickett. I don't expect Kurt to do well in this one.
Fickett by submission Rd. 1

Yves Edwards vs. Joe Stevenson
This is one of the more interesting fights on the card. Both fighters are coming off a loss in their last UFC outing. Yves got a win in Bushido afterwards though and that could be the difference here. Stevenson's confidence has to be a bit shaky at this point and that's not good when you're going in against one of the best lighweights on the planet. Joe could make a fight of this, but Yves will likely work to keep this standing and will get the better of Joe.
Edwards by decision

Josh Burkman vs. Josh Neer

Burkman is looking to get back on the winning track after a tough loss to Jon Fitch at the April UFN. Neer, meanwhile has been on a roll lately and is looking to further solidify his position as a welterweight contender. It will be interesting to see if his winning ways will eventually get him a shot at fellow Miletich teammate Matt Hughes in the future if Hughes gets by St. Pierre in September. Burkman has surprised people before but I don't like his odds here.
Neer by submission Rd. 2

Frank Mir vs. Dan Christison
Frank came back too early in his last fight against Pe de Pano and looked like a shadow of his former self. Hopefully the last four months have been enough to get him back into some reasonable shape. Frank must avoid Dan's attempts to control him on the ground. I'm being a fanboy here, but I think he will.
Mir by sub mission Rd. 1

Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock
I can't possibly see anything here that would give Ken a chance in this fight. Tito works harder, has more ability, better cardio, and is younger. Ken has never wised up to the fact that he needs to work with better partners in training. The dislike between these two won't play a factor when the fight starts. It's going to come down to Tito's huge skill advantage over Ken.
Ortiz by TKO Rd. 2

Tim Sylvia vs. Andrei Arlovski
Despite what most say, I still believe this is a difficult fight to call. Nobody likes being the heavyweight champion more than Tim. Andrei says he wants the belt back badly but I don't think he wants to win as bad as Sylvia. Andrei clearly has the advantage in ability. The difference in the third installment of this rivalry will be Andrei's game plan. He's going to fight a much smarter fight this time by eliminating Sylvia's reach advantage. Look for Tim to spend some time on his back in this one.
Andrei by submission Rd. 2

This card looks great and will likely bring some excitement. Hopefull some of the undercard fights will establish some contenders and stars that we can look forward to seeing in some main events in the future. The way things are going we probably won't see a highly touted main event (that's not a rematch) in a UFC PPV this year.

Will

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

"I'm Back On Sherdog, Bitches"

The latest shot by UFC over the bow of the MMA media was fired at the weigh-ins of Ultimate Fight Night 5 when Jennifer Wenk asked staff from Sherdog.com to leave the event claiming that cameras were not allowed in the event. I have a feeling this had more to do with a video interview the site posted following the TUF 3 finale. In the interview, a clearly impaired White gives his thoughts on the finale, the upcoming Ultimate Fight Night and the return of Rich Franklin. When I watched the video though, all I could concentrate on was giggling at a drunk Dana White and laughed out loud when, at the end of the interview, Dana put his face in the camera and proclaimed: "I'm back on Sherdog, Bitches." I can't help but think that Dana severely regrets having that video posted. Given the level of criticism that Sherdog has leveled on UFC since the ban in October, I can't say I'm suprised by his reaction. This won't be the last run-in these two have with each other.

I've been critical of the Sherdog business model in the past. Their site is so overloaded with ads that the content has become exceedingly difficult to find. Further, they now have a subscription model for much of thier content. The site was, inexcusably, the last on the web to post any information about the Pride-FujiTV fiasco. The forum is overcrowded with people who contribute nothing to discussion threads. At the same time, it's without question the best place to go for interviews and media with fighters and MMA personalities. The fight finder is the single most valuable internet tool for MMA fans and the Beatdown Radio Show is well produced and highly entertaining.

UFC however, is trying to build itself as the biggest MMA brand in the world and with the recent problems at DSE may be in a position to do so sooner rather than later. Major players in any realm of business and politics know that executing some control over the media is critical in establishing their message. The problem is, the media doesn't want to be controlled. The debate over whether or not the media should have limits has raged on for decades in arenas much larger than MMA. The relationship between UFC and Sherdog was and, to some degree, still is symbiotic. In these types of relationships there is a pendulum effect that occurs where one side needs the other more at certain times. Right now the pundulum is clearly on the side of UFC. At some point I'm sure the pendulum will swing back to Sherdog and the rest of the MMA media. Until that happens though, Sherdog is going to have accept that UFC can and will react unkindly to negative treatment. I believe that when Dana saw himself intoxicated on the front page of Sherdog Sunday he reacted. He may have gotten some heat from other people within the organization or he may have reacted alone. Remember, UFC hired Mark Ratner for the very purpose of improving their image in the mainstream as a "sport not spectacle" organization.

I'm not taking the UFC side of this incident, just explaining it. I strongly disagree with the ban UFC has placed on providing media credentials to internet MMA media. The initial reason that was given that there were too many people using the credentialing process to get free entry into events doesn't make sense. Instead of weeding out the offending parties. UFC essentially threw the baby out with the bath water and in doing so, shunned their biggest supporters during the tough times. It doesn't take a genius to realize that Sherdog.com legitimately reports on MMA news and events. Figthsport.com is a completely different story. Why is it so difficult to grant one credentials, and not the other? This has been the regular practice for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL press credentialing for years. If this blog was about the NFL and I tried to use it to get a press pass to the next Superbowl the NFL would essentially laugh at my request and throw it away. There is no reason why MMA-Weekly, Sherdog.com, and Full Contact Fighter shouldn't be allowed to cover the sport the way they have for years. It's not as though ESPN and Sports Illustrated are taking their spot in the press area.

In the future, I can see Sherdog and UFC getting along again. Both companies are in the middle of growth and changes. Both are still highly immature in stature. Both are being a bit stubborn about this. Until there is some resolution, we as fans are just going to have to remember these incidents when reading MMA news from both sides. Keep your B.S. filter clean and working.


Will

Friday, May 26, 2006

UFC 60 is the Beginning

It is common knowledge that Dana White got his start as a boxing promoter. So it comes as no surprise that UFC 60 has the feel of a boxing event as opposed to what we have become used to with past shows. Typically, there are two or three fights on any UFC card that draw attention to the event. This particular show however, is relying specifically on one fight with what seems to be some filler in the undercard. Fortunately, for the established fan the undercard has some interesting matchups that will likely prove to be a lot less predictable than the main event.

Ever since the main event of Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie was announced it has been blatantly obvious that Dana White is trying to establish the "new" UFC as a much different product than the one promoted by SEG back in the '90s. The success of the Ultimate Fighter reality show has brought fans new and old to the UFC at a blistering rate. Those who left the sport during the dark years and never returned will certainly recognize the name Royce Gracie as the seemingly unstoppable champion of three of the first four UFC events. As the theory undoubtably goes, if Hughes defeats Royce as easily as Dana hopes it will establish the new breed of fighter as true sportsman as opposed to one dimensional marial artists. The problem here is that what could result is a boring main event that leaves fans dissatisfied with the value of their ticket or PPV purchase (both of which are the highest ever for a UFC event).

Perhaps the UFC would have been better served by booking a solid co-main event on the card to draw attention to the quality of fights today in the UFC. Something with the caliber of a Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonner rematch or a Paul Buentello vs. Frank Mir bout. While there are extenuating circumstances that wouldn't have allowed either of these fights to take place on this card, the point remains: The UFC has placed all its eggs in the preverbial basket by relying on one fight to carry the card. Don't misunderstand, the undercard of this event has some great matchups but it is riddled with unknowns to the casual fan.

And what happens if Royce beats Matt? Since this is a non-title fight there would be obvious implecations in the 170lb. division where Georges St. Pierre has been promised the next crack at the belt. Beyond that, would there be some image issues the UFC would have to deal with? From a strictly notalgic point of view, it would be great to see Royce submit Matt but, would Dana want to pay Royce another huge paycheck to get back in the Octagon for a rematch? All of these questions give the event the feel of a comeback fight in boxing similar to when George Foreman fought Michael Moorer for the heavy weight title at 45 years old. We all saw what happened then.

Here are my much maligned predictions for UFC 60:

Jeremy Horn vs. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen is coming off a decision victory over Trevor Prangley at Ultimate Fight Night in April and is now comitted to fighting at 185lbs. Horn is coming off a decision victory over Trevor Prangley at UFC 56 last November and is now comitted to fighting at 185lbs. Horn has beaten Sonnen twice already, once each by submission and cut. Why is this fight happening again? Horn is still too much for Sonnen on the ground. Horn by submission in the first round.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabiano Scherner

Gonzaga had a lack luster performance in his UFC debut against Kevin Jordan at UFC 56. He was able to get the victory very late in the 3rd round with a great punch but he was exhausted at the time. Scherner is returning to the octagon after a brutal knockout loss at the hands of Brandon Vera. Neither have very impressive wins under their belt but they're heavyweights and the UFC needs heavyweights. These two are talented ground fighters with solid BJJ pedigrees. I'm not expecting much from this one, but I'll give the edge to Gonzaga as he has shown that he can stay in the fight to the end. Gonzaga by unanimous decision.

Allessio Sakara vs. Dean Lister

Everyone should climb aboard the Allesion Sakara bandwagon now and hold on tight. Allesio has the best technical striking ability of any one at light heavyweight in the UFC. Yes, that includes Chuck Liddel. His last appearance in the UFC was a bloody dismantling of Elvis Sinosec. He knows how to defend submissions and can control his opponent on the ground. Lister is a grappling sorcerer and can submit anyone in the world but he hasn't fought MMA in over a year and hasn't fought in a cage in 3 1/2 years. Sakara will be well prepared to defend the takedown and will work like mad to keep this one standing. Sakara by TKO in round 2.

Spencer Fisher vs. Matt Wiman

Spencer was widely regarded as the next big thing at 155lbs before he lost a close decision to Sam Stout at UFC 58. Wiman meanwhile, is making his UFC debut. Fisher is a proven finisher having won a decision in only 1 of his 17 victories. I see no reason for anything to change here. Wiman is severely deficient in experience to handle Fisher's well rounded skills and fast hands. Fisher by KO in round 1.

Melvin Guillard vs. Rick Davis

I have been fortunate enough to witness Melvin's training for this fight and he has never looked sharper. He's been aggressively working his stand up and looks to be ready to get back on the winning track after dropping his last fight to Josh Neer. Davis is making his UFC debut and is a late bloomer in the MMA game. Nothing in Rick's 3-0-1 record stands out as impressive and he hasn't had a fight in nearly 2 years. Melvin will likely look to damage Rick early with kicks and work his GNP. Rick has never been stopped and has a reputation as a guy who can take some punishment. Guillard by decision.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Allesio

The obvious question here has to do with the recovery of Diego after a debiliating illness that has kept him sidelined for the last 6+ months. Sanchez looks to stay undefeated while Allesio makes his return to the UFC after a 6 year absence following a loss against (belive it or not) Pat Miletich for the lightweight title. Allesio gets the edge in experience but not by much. If Diego is 85% healthy it will be enough to get the win. John will be the toughest opponent Diego has faced in his career. I think he pulls through but barely. Sanchez wins by decision.

Brandon Vera vs. Assuerio Silva

Silva is coming off a tough loss to Tim Sylvia in what was a bad match-up for both fighters. Brandon Vera is proving to be a highly marketable fighter with the skills to back it up. This is a very tough matchup for Vera and we will get to see is ground game tested for the first time. Brandon has had a lot of success in BJJ matches in his career so he should be fine. I see this fight going back and forth for a while before Vera's slightly superior kicking ability takes over. Brandon by TKO in the 2nd round.

Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie

Just about everything that could be said about this fight has been. Hughes has a reputation for being submittable. He has 4 losses of which 3 were the result of a submission. He also nearly lost a fight to Carlos Newton by triangle choke until he was fortunate enough to slam Newton's head into the canvas on the way down after going to sleep. Royce has a big problem on his hands if Matt decides to keep this fight on his feet. I suspect Gracie will try anything to pull guard but the odds are definitely with Hughes' ability to control the pace and style of the fight. Royce is experienced and tough enought to take Hughes the distance but it won't be pretty. Hughes wins by decision.

I'm looking forward to this fight being over with so the UFC can get back to the usual business of promoting MMA. With the exception of middleweight, there are emerging story lines in every division. UFC 60 is the beginning of the new era of one fight shows with "oh, by the way" undercards but at least the next few main events will have something at stake.

Will

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Way to go DSE!

In a matter of hours, Pride Fighting Championships will kick off its first ever open weight grand prix at the Osaka Dome in Japan. When Dream Stage Entertainment, the company that runs Pride events, first announced this tournament many fans cringed at thoughts of a Takanori Gomi vs. Fedor Emelianenko massacre. Those thoughts were quickly put to rest when the Pride 31 event showcased what could actually be a very exciting event. Opinions of the open weight format changed to quiet excitement and grew to genuine anticipation. That is, until the actuall fight cards were announced and something started to smell fishy.

Reports of Yakuza interference in the DSE buisiness offices started surfacing and with those reports came highly unusual behavior from a company that just six months ago was dominating the Japanese MMA scene and was poised to make huge waves in the United States as a challenger to the UFC. Most of the MMA press has completely ignored this story. In fact, kudos should be given to fightopinion.com for leading the charge in bringing this story to U.S. fans. Especially when you consider that that particular site makes money from Pride advertising dollars. Other more popular sites have cast away the story as tabloid-ish and without basis. Then, a bombshell was dropped yesterday when Pride lost their poster boy and founding star Kazushi Sakuraba to rival organization K-1.

And, backing up a few days prior to the announcement, Pride rounded out the lineup for the much heralded open weight tournament with... Mark Coleman? Nope. Phil Baroni? Try again. Wanderlei Silva? Not even close. Instead, Pride brings you Zulu! Way to go DSE! Nothing silences the critics and rumors like finding the cheapest fighter you can and pitting him against one of the greatest heavyweights in the world in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. This announcement is so last minute that, with hours to go before the event, Pride's website still doesn't even show this matchup on the fight card. All this, and we are to believe that there are no major problems in the Pride organization.

DSE has essentially blown the opportunity to put together what would have been the most amazing MMA event to take place in years. All those hopes that fans had of fantasy matchups were dashed. There are still some great fights on this card. It could still turn out to be a memorable event. Granted, it's easy to talk about what could have been but the circumstances surrounding this make the resulting product downright depressing. I hope I'm wrong. I hope DSE just made some bad match making decisions. Maybe it's just my ignorance to the Japanese culture and market.

Nonetheless, this event is going forward. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts on the matchups as they stand.

Gilbert Yvel vs. Roman Zentsov - Yvel is basically a shadow of the potential we saw early in his career. Not to mention that as far as a sportsman goes, he's not one. Roman shows a lot of talent and promise and he's a Red Devil fighter so that's enough to get my vote. Roman by TKO in round 1.

Kazuyuki Fujita vs. James Thompson - On paper this is a classic Pride mismatch. Fujita has the edge in both experience and skill and looks to be able to walk through to the second round. For some reason, I smell upset here. I have no educated technical analysis as to why Thompson could win. James hit hard and I have a feeling. So with that, Thompson by K.O. in round 1.

Hidehiko Yoshida vs. Yosuke Nishijima - Nishijima wanted to wear boxing gloves and he should thank Sakakibara for telling him no. It probably wouldn't efect anything. Yoshida by easy sub in round 1.

Josh Barnett vs. Aleksander Emelianenko - I think this will be the fight of the night. Josh has the experience and skill to handle Aleksander and I think he will. It won't be easy though. Barnett is going to have his hands full but Emelianenko has few fights against top notch competition and Barnett is the as top notch as it gets. In the end, the experience will be too much for the Russian. Barnett by decision.

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum - Werdum will try to keep this fight on the ground but he probably won't succeed. If he does get it to the ground Overeem might smash him to a pulp. Alistair has improved dramatically in the past two years and after seeing him in his last fight, he could get to the finals of this tournament. Overeem by T.K.O. in the 2nd.

Mirko Cro-Cop vs. Ikuhisha Minowa - Cro-Cop is just too much for Minowa who I predict will try and stand with Mirko. Why would Minowa stand with Cro-Cop? Because he's a proven psychopath. Cro-Cop by K.O. in round 1.

Tsuyoshi Kosaka vs. Mark Hunt - This is an interesting fight to handicap. Hunt has never fought as intelligent a fighter as T.K. That is, except in his Pride debut with Yoshida and that didn't turn out well for Hunt. I see the same result here. Kosaka is going to continually pursue the takedown. He will eventually get it and along with it, a submission victory. T.K. by submission in round 2.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Zulu - This one's easy. Zulu wins by kneebar off of a gogoplata transition.

If these fights go the way I've predicted (given my past attempts at predicting fights, they won't) the potential second round matchups are very interesting. Especially with Fedor getting a bye into the second round of the tournament. Maybe by then we will have a better idea of how DSE is going to move forward through these difficult times. Hopefully, the company will start by acknowledging them.

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Thank God for Abe Belardo

Now that the UFC 59 dust has settled the lips are loosening as it relates to Tito Ortiz' somewhat controversial decision victory over Forrest Griffin. Most notably, mma fans and arm-chair judges everywhere are furious with Abe Belardo scoring the second round 10-9 Ortiz thus giving Tito a 30-27 total for the fight. No one should try to defend Abe for this abysmal error. Further, no one should look to the UFC for an explaination as to how this could happen. The fact is, the UFC has no control over the judging of the fights. It is the California State Athletic Commision that decided that Abe would be a judge for the event. Thank God they did.

Recently, Dana White himself indicated that that he was shocked by Abe's decision. He indicated that he scored Forrest the winner and Lorenzo Fertitta scored the fight a draw with Tito earning a 10-8 first round. Personally, I had Forrest winning the fight but respected the decision by two of the three judges especially after Griffin himself said in his post fight comments that he had no problem with the decision. What's always interesting with these situations is to see what is said days later after everyone has had time to seriously think about the ramifications. Forrest has since changed his thoughts on the fight after seeing it again. He also expressed deep dissapointment with Tito's comments both immediately after the fight and in an interview the next day where he claimed Forrest's legs were oiled up to help slip out of takedowns. Classy, Tito, very classy.

So, hardcore mma fans have been screaming for years that there needs to be some sort of consistency in the way mma fights are judged and finally, Abe Belardo has helped bring this issue to the forefront. I just hope that a few key elements are considered when the time comes to establish judging criteria. First, submission attempts have to be factored in as part of an overall aggressiveness rating. Especially when a fighter is on his back. Armbar and triangle attempts are, after all, an attempt to end the fight. When a fighter has to scramble to escape a submission attempt, it's the equivalent of eating punches and having to clinch to stop the onslaught. Secondly, takedowns are important and should score points but if a fighter is able to get up from a takedown, it should be scored equally. This is the way all grappling matches are scored as escaping the bottom requires just as much skill as a takedown, if not more. Lastly, low kicks can do a tremendous amount of damages and should be credited equal to a punch. These are the jabs of the kicking game and can drastically change the game plan of the fighter on the receiving end.

The Nevada State Athletic Commission has a tremendous opportunity to jump on this issue first and bring California in to establish some unified rules. MMA is growing at a frantic pace and the longer these types of miserable judging scenarios are allowed to continue, the longer it will take for people to give the sport the attention it deserves. Just remember, when we finally have a unified set of judging criteria we'll have Abe Belardo to thank for it.

Will

Friday, April 14, 2006

The UFC is Not for You!!

O.K., so think of this as an open letter to hardcore fans of mixed marial arts. I have some startling news for you. The UFC is not for you. I know this may be hard to accept but it's a fact. You are not the typical person that watches the UFC on PPV or tunes in to Spike TV to see Ultimate Fight Night Live or Ultimate Fighter episodes.

Please understand, I'm on your side. I'm a huge MMA fan and rarely miss a UFC or Pride event. I train in the sport and have followed it since it's early beginnings when I saw a tape of UFC 1 back in 1994. I had to suffer through the cable tv blackouts with the rest of you. I'll never forget the anger I felt when I couldn't order UFC 14 because Time-Warner pulled it at the last minute. I had to read about the Mark Coleman vs. Maurice Smith fight in a live chat room as a result. I hung in there with the sport becuased I believed in it. I continued to read and keep up with the goings on in the UFC throughout the years that followed until its triumphant return to PPV. I'm as much a hardcore fan as you. Still, I know that the UFC is not in business to get my attention and money.

The fact is, the majority of the people who watch the UFC are general sports fans that are looking to enjoy some competition. They have no idea why Matt Hughes' armbar off of a kimura reversal against GSP was so pretty to watch. You won't see them screaming at the T.V. when Mario Yamasake puts yet another fighters life at risk by ingnoring his rolled back eyes. These people just like to watch fights. Most appreciate the skill and athleticism of the fighters. They understand to some degree what's happening. However, when the broadcast ends, so does their attention to it. They don't go to message boards to post their thoughts and opinions. They don't take the time to write long-winded blogs on the subject. They simply go about the rest of their day and try to remember to tune into the next event.

The reason I'm telling you this is to help you with your issues with how Dana White runs the UFC as well as how the Ultimate Fighter and other Spike shows are edited and aired. Message boards are littered with arguments about how TUF is too much fluff. There should be more focus on the fighting and training aspects. I read about how the Tito vs. Ken angle is cheap and too WWE for your tastes. What the die hard fans forget is that Spike TV is looking for new viewers. They know you're going to watch. It doesn't matter what they put on, as long as there is a fight at the end. The problem for us is that the sport is in the midst of enormous growth and when you build the kind of momentum that the UFC is building, it means you do what ever it takes to continue the growth.

This problem is not exclusive to our sport. It happens in many things and in just about every other sport. For example, I'm a very casual baseball fan, I keep up with my team sparingly throughout the year and start to pay closer attention in August when playoff time approaches. I play a March Madness bracket every year after having watched at the most 1 or 2 college basketball games during the season. I am a rabid college football fan though. I've been arguing for a division 1 playoff system for over a decade and when I bring it up at a party, know one really cares as much as I do. Similarly, when MMA comes up in a group discussion I spend most of my time explaining away false statements by my friends and acquaintances who think Tyson would kill everyone in the UFC or how dangerous a sport MMA is. This is who the UFC is going after right now. They have a massive amount of educating to do but the drama has to be there to attract them in the first place. So don't be so critical of the way the UFC is being marketed right now. UFC growth is MMA growth. MMA growth is what ultimately will get the sport to the point where being a hardcore fan will be much more common. Ultimately that's what we all want.

Will
 
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