UFC is Rising to Fall

Now that all the heat that UFC 63 generated is starting to die down, it's time to look toward the future of UFC events. Not just in the next few months, but over the course of 2007. There's good news and bad news. The good news is that the rest of 2006 looks to be a continuation of an incredible year for Zuffa. The bad news is that, unless something changes quickly, 2007 won't come close to living up to the hype Dana White has created this year. The reason for this is the lack of interest generating matchups available to UFC. Especially since 6 out of the last 8 UFC PPV events have featured a rematch as the headlining fight. Here is a break down of each weight class and why all, except one, are in deep trouble of causing a huge decrease in UFC momentum over the next 12-15 months.

155 lb. Lightweight Division:

This is the "except one" mentioned above. This division is so stacked that determing who the true dominant fighters will be is still a year away. Just the UFC 63 results alone shook up the division and raised a ton of questions about who the #1 contender will be following the Florian vs. Sherk fight in October. Joe Lauzon, Tyson Griffin, Melvin Guillard, Roger Huerta, and Jorge Gurgel all made a case for themself. Further, there are guys like Hermes Franca, Josh Thompson, Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout that will have a say in what happens in the title story. By the way, we still haven't heard the last from Jens Pulver.

170 lb. Welterweight Division:

Matt Hughes' decisive victory over B.J. Penn established that the welterwight division in UFC is really about three fighters. Hughes will battle Georges St. Pierre in November in a much anticipated rematch. The winner will have to defend against Diego Sanchez soon thereafter. After that there is little to look forward to in the division. The TUF 4 winner will get a title shot but none of the fighters on the show can compete with Matt, GSP or Diego. UFC is going to have to set up yet another rematch in 2007. This is often called one of the deepest divisions in MMA yet there are few if any fighters that can be looked to as legitimate challengers for the belt. There are still intriguing fights in the division but none of them would be for the title.

185 lb. Middleweight Division:

If Rich Franklin defeats Anderson Silva at UFC 64 there will be little argument that he is the top 185 lb. fighter on the planet. He will likely next face a challenge from Mike Swick. This fight will generate some interest. Swick has shown significant ability but nothing that would indicate he could defeat Franklin. Swick's last fight against Loiseau was impressive but his grip on the fight was slipping in the latter minutes. In a 5 round fight against a master strategist like Rich Franklin, Swick doesn't stand much of a chance. Like Hughes or GSP, Franklin will have to defend against the other winner of TUF 4 and, like Hughes or GSP, none of the show's competitors look to present a significant threat to take the title. Dana White needs to go outside and bring people in the challenge Franklin. Specifically, he needs to bury the hatchett with Matt Lindland and set up a title shot for him. Lindland has been on a tear lately and would push Franklin harder than anyone ever has.

205 lb. Light-Heavyweight Division:

No division is in more trouble of becoming irrelevant than this. In December, Chuck Liddell will fight Tito Ortiz in what will be his fourth rematch out of his last five fights. Worse, Tito is the last interesting fight in the entire division for Chuck. As it stands now, there are no UFC fighters at 205 lbs. that could create an interesting title match. There are very few non title matches in the division that will spark fan interest as well. If UFC doesn't aggressively pursue 205 lb. fighters from Pride (and sign Quinton Jackson), their marquee fighter will quickly become old hat. In addition, the window to see Chuck fight at his current level is shrinking. He's knees and feet are starting to fail him and he's 37. If UFC can't go out and sign legitimate challengers to Liddell it would not be surprising to see him leave the UFC in favor of greater challenges.

265 lb. Heavyweight Division:

It's no secret that the UFC heavyweight division has been struggling for a couple of years to create excitement. UFC has succeeded in taking the division from the least competative to the second-least competative division after the 205 lb. division. In the short-term, there is no one to fight title holder Tim Sylvia. Looking 6-12 months down the road a different story starts to materialize. Brandon Vera continues to improve and is creating a huge buzz around himself, Cheik Kongo is starting to make a name for himself, Gabriel Gonzaga has racked up a few wins, Eddie Sanchez looked a somewhat impressive in his UFC debut at 63 and Frank Mir could still get it back together enought to make a run. Since the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix ended, there are some fighters that the UFC could look to to help bring a little more legitimacy to the division. Specifically, Antonio Nogueira and Josh Barnett are prime candidates to move into the division and instantly generate great matchups with the other hopefuls. UFC is on the right track with this division but there is still a lot to be done.

With no predestined marquee matchups to look forward to in 2007 there could be a significant slow down in the momentum Dana has generated over the last 18 months. The more educated fans become, the more they will demand fight cards with a headline match that means something. This issue is going to require that Dana White be more aggressive in his pursuit of the sport's top talent. Profits have never been higher for Zuffa and in order to continue generating more, they will have to part with some.